A Bayesian Justification for the Scenario Approach to Legal Proof

In this paper, I show with Conrad Friedrich that the scenario approach to legal proof can be understood in terms of probabilities—contrary to some proponents of this approach. This strengthens the successfully applied sccenario approach by giving it a Bayesian justification. The paper is Open Access available here. And below is the corresponding poster for the Central APA in Chicago 2026.

Poster Central APA 2026.pdf

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